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Familiar Themes Still Driving Won Gains

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Firmer On Tuesday, Midterms On Deck

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z2) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

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Gilts outperform with core FI higher across the board

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  • Gilts are the outperformers in core fixed space this morning with the front-end of the curve seeing the most repricing with 2-year gilt yields down over 25bp on the day. 10-year gilt yields are down over 10bp on the day too, while the 10s30s curve is flatter on the day (i.e. more inverted) but still around 7bp off yesterday's cycle lows. PM Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng are due to meet OBR Chair Richard Hughes this morning with the market hoping that the Budget and full OBR forecast (scheduled for 23 November will be brought forward).
  • In the Eurozone the focus has been on inflation - with French HICP surprising to the downside, but the Eurozone print higher than expected (Italian HICP was in line). Markets have not fully reversed the rally on the back of the French disappointment this morning and EGBs are bull steeper on the day.
  • In the US we have personal income / spending data due at 13:30BST alongside the PCE deflator. We also have the MNI Chicago Business Barometer and the final print of Michigan sentiment.
  • There are a number of Fed speakers due: Bullard, Brainard, Bowman, Barkin and Williams. We will also see comments from ECB's Visco and Schnabel.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-6 today at 112-20+ with 10y UST yields down -7.9bp at 3.710% and 2y yields down -3.3bp at 4.162%.
  • Bund futures are up 1.09 today at 138.59 with 10y Bund yields down -7.2bp at 2.106% and Schatz yields down -4.6bp at 1.739%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.48 today at 970.01 with 10y yields down -9.5bp at 4.042% and 2y yields down -24.6bp at 4.087%.
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  • Gilts are the outperformers in core fixed space this morning with the front-end of the curve seeing the most repricing with 2-year gilt yields down over 25bp on the day. 10-year gilt yields are down over 10bp on the day too, while the 10s30s curve is flatter on the day (i.e. more inverted) but still around 7bp off yesterday's cycle lows. PM Liz Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng are due to meet OBR Chair Richard Hughes this morning with the market hoping that the Budget and full OBR forecast (scheduled for 23 November will be brought forward).
  • In the Eurozone the focus has been on inflation - with French HICP surprising to the downside, but the Eurozone print higher than expected (Italian HICP was in line). Markets have not fully reversed the rally on the back of the French disappointment this morning and EGBs are bull steeper on the day.
  • In the US we have personal income / spending data due at 13:30BST alongside the PCE deflator. We also have the MNI Chicago Business Barometer and the final print of Michigan sentiment.
  • There are a number of Fed speakers due: Bullard, Brainard, Bowman, Barkin and Williams. We will also see comments from ECB's Visco and Schnabel.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-6 today at 112-20+ with 10y UST yields down -7.9bp at 3.710% and 2y yields down -3.3bp at 4.162%.
  • Bund futures are up 1.09 today at 138.59 with 10y Bund yields down -7.2bp at 2.106% and Schatz yields down -4.6bp at 1.739%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.48 today at 970.01 with 10y yields down -9.5bp at 4.042% and 2y yields down -24.6bp at 4.087%.