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GILTS: Recovering As Oil Falls And Equities Stall

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionMarkets

Gilt futures test yesterday’s high as equities come under pressure and weakness in crude oil futures feeds in, reversing the early weakness.

  • Contract last +4 at 100.16, with the Sep 6 high (100.60) providing the next level of meaningful resistance above yesterday’s peak (100.20).
  • Yields little changed to 2bp lower across the curve, bull steepening.
  • The latest labour market data was generally in line with expectations. This shouldn’t move the need for BoE policy (which has been non-committal to further cuts at this stage).
  • Expect our full write up covering the release in due course.
  • SONIA futures -1.5 to +2.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~3bp of cuts for this month, ~28bp of cuts through Nov and ~45bp of easing through year end.
  • GBP900mln of 0.625% Mar-45 ~I/L gilt supply was smoothly absorbed after some mild pre-auction concession.
  • The pre-release of comments from BoE’s Breeden will cross at midday, see our Gilt Week Ahead for further details.
  • Beyond there, U.S. inputs (Wednesday’s CPI and tonight’s election debate) and UK GDP data are set to dominate over the next couple of sessions.

BoE Meeting

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Gilt futures test yesterday’s high as equities come under pressure and weakness in crude oil futures feeds in, reversing the early weakness.

  • Contract last +4 at 100.16, with the Sep 6 high (100.60) providing the next level of meaningful resistance above yesterday’s peak (100.20).
  • Yields little changed to 2bp lower across the curve, bull steepening.
  • The latest labour market data was generally in line with expectations. This shouldn’t move the need for BoE policy (which has been non-committal to further cuts at this stage).
  • Expect our full write up covering the release in due course.
  • SONIA futures -1.5 to +2.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~3bp of cuts for this month, ~28bp of cuts through Nov and ~45bp of easing through year end.
  • GBP900mln of 0.625% Mar-45 ~I/L gilt supply was smoothly absorbed after some mild pre-auction concession.
  • The pre-release of comments from BoE’s Breeden will cross at midday, see our Gilt Week Ahead for further details.
  • Beyond there, U.S. inputs (Wednesday’s CPI and tonight’s election debate) and UK GDP data are set to dominate over the next couple of sessions.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less