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Glapinski Disregards Hawkish MPC Tilt, Seemingly Open to Overshooting

POLAND
  • * EUR/PLN trading slightly firmer at the open, having risen ~1.5% over the course of last week.
  • Glapinski surprised markets with his defiantly dovish rhetoric, despite signs of some hawkishness emerging in the MPC and upside risks to CPI coming from updated growth & inflation projections.
  • Comments such as "the probability of rate rise this MPC term near zero", "nothing indicates rate hikes in 2021 or 2022", and "market is wrong with Polish rate hike expectations" were about as dovish as they come
  • indicating a clear willingness to accommodate inflation overshooting to the end of the MPC's term, provided no unforeseen external shocks emerge.
  • On FX loans, Glapinksi kicked the can down the road somewhat - saying the real negotiations begin after the 25 March court verdict.
  • Downside in EUR/USD continues to add upside pressure in EUR/PLN – now approaching YTD highs.
  • Intraday Res1: 4.6026, Res2: 4.6166, Sup1: 4.5582, Sup2: 4.5465
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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