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HUF: Global Equity Weakness Prompts Moderate Correction Lower for HUF

HUF
CEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market NewsHungary

The forint has started the week on a softer note amid a sharp decline across major equity indices. Doubts over the US’ dominance in AI following the surge in Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI tool to the top of Apple iPhone downloads chart has prompted a 3% decline for March-dated Nasdaq futures contract. Meanwhile, below-consensus manufacturing PMI readings out of China will be providing a further headwind to EM FX.

  • While the factors outlined above have seen USDHUF rise around 0.2%, the pair remains over 4% lower compared to the January highs owing to the sharp pullback last week. Losses for the pair were exacerbated by the break of support at the 50-day EMA, and we remain below that average again today.
  • Similarly, EURHUF remains below the 50-day EMA after the cross closed below the average for the first time since September on Wednesday. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards 405.52, the Nov 15 low.
  • Local focus turns to the NBH rate decision tomorrow afternoon, though no change to the 6.50% base rate appears all but confirmed following the above-expectations CPI print for December. See our preview in the post above.
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The forint has started the week on a softer note amid a sharp decline across major equity indices. Doubts over the US’ dominance in AI following the surge in Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI tool to the top of Apple iPhone downloads chart has prompted a 3% decline for March-dated Nasdaq futures contract. Meanwhile, below-consensus manufacturing PMI readings out of China will be providing a further headwind to EM FX.

  • While the factors outlined above have seen USDHUF rise around 0.2%, the pair remains over 4% lower compared to the January highs owing to the sharp pullback last week. Losses for the pair were exacerbated by the break of support at the 50-day EMA, and we remain below that average again today.
  • Similarly, EURHUF remains below the 50-day EMA after the cross closed below the average for the first time since September on Wednesday. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards 405.52, the Nov 15 low.
  • Local focus turns to the NBH rate decision tomorrow afternoon, though no change to the 6.50% base rate appears all but confirmed following the above-expectations CPI print for December. See our preview in the post above.