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Global LNG Supply Could Fall 1.35% on LNG Diversions Throughout 2024: OIES

LNG

LNG diversions are curtailing LNG shipping capacity, but even disruption cwill only result in a year-on-year reduction in global LNG supply of 5.4 mt or 1.35% according to OIES.

  • LNG shipping between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal has halted since 12 January 2024 due to attacks while droughts have been restricting shipping via the Panama Canal since mid-2023.
  • Some cargoes are being diverted to alternative markets while others are being re-routed via the Cape of Good Hope. This disruption primarily affects LNG supply from Qatar to Europe and to Asia from the US, Russia, and North Africa.
  • The volume of LNG shipped via the Panama Canal could fall to zero in February after a decline by two-thirds between August 2023 and January 2024.
  • LNG supply from West Africa and the re-opening of the Panama Canal after the rainy season will help to offset any growing impact due to the cumulative impact of longer shipping times during H2 2024.
  • LNG supply to Europe from Qatar could decline by 7.6 mt or 50% but one-third of that could be offset by North African LNG, and another 1.5 mt could be sourced from new export projects in West Africa.
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