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GLOBAL MACRO: Global Trade Growth Continues To Improve In August

GLOBAL MACRO
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The August CPB global merchandise trade data was positive despite previous monetary policy tightening, soft manufacturing PMIs and shipping disruptions. Global trade volumes rose 1.4% m/m to be up 2.7% y/y after 1.8% in July, the fastest pace since October 2022. The 1.9% m/m rise in global exports was driven by both emerging (EM) and developed markets (DM). The data is backward looking but 3-month export momentum is positive for both EM and DM.

  • Global exports rose 3.7% y/y up from 2.7% y/y in July with EM continuing to outperform DM. They began to recover around 15 months ago and this trend has continued through 2024. The Baltic Freight index is pointing to a stabilisation in global goods trade growth though. 

Global goods trade volumes y/y% vs Baltic Freight Index

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The August CPB global merchandise trade data was positive despite previous monetary policy tightening, soft manufacturing PMIs and shipping disruptions. Global trade volumes rose 1.4% m/m to be up 2.7% y/y after 1.8% in July, the fastest pace since October 2022. The 1.9% m/m rise in global exports was driven by both emerging (EM) and developed markets (DM). The data is backward looking but 3-month export momentum is positive for both EM and DM.

  • Global exports rose 3.7% y/y up from 2.7% y/y in July with EM continuing to outperform DM. They began to recover around 15 months ago and this trend has continued through 2024. The Baltic Freight index is pointing to a stabilisation in global goods trade growth though. 

Global goods trade volumes y/y% vs Baltic Freight Index

Keep reading...Show less