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GLOBAL MACRO: Global Trade Growth Continues To Improve In August

GLOBAL MACRO
EM BulletFixed Income BulletsBulletMarketsEmerging Market News

The August CPB global merchandise trade data was positive despite previous monetary policy tightening, soft manufacturing PMIs and shipping disruptions. Global trade volumes rose 1.4% m/m to be up 2.7% y/y after 1.8% in July, the fastest pace since October 2022. The 1.9% m/m rise in global exports was driven by both emerging (EM) and developed markets (DM). The data is backward looking but 3-month export momentum is positive for both EM and DM.

  • Global exports rose 3.7% y/y up from 2.7% y/y in July with EM continuing to outperform DM. They began to recover around 15 months ago and this trend has continued through 2024. The Baltic Freight index is pointing to a stabilisation in global goods trade growth though. 

Global goods trade volumes y/y% vs Baltic Freight Index

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The August CPB global merchandise trade data was positive despite previous monetary policy tightening, soft manufacturing PMIs and shipping disruptions. Global trade volumes rose 1.4% m/m to be up 2.7% y/y after 1.8% in July, the fastest pace since October 2022. The 1.9% m/m rise in global exports was driven by both emerging (EM) and developed markets (DM). The data is backward looking but 3-month export momentum is positive for both EM and DM.

  • Global exports rose 3.7% y/y up from 2.7% y/y in July with EM continuing to outperform DM. They began to recover around 15 months ago and this trend has continued through 2024. The Baltic Freight index is pointing to a stabilisation in global goods trade growth though. 

Global goods trade volumes y/y% vs Baltic Freight Index

Keep reading...Show less