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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI's March 30 Global Macro Outlook meeting focused on the impacts of two big shocks over the previous month: Russia invading Ukraine, and the rapidly shifting Federal Reserve tightening outlook.
For full PDF publication:
Executive Summary:
- Stagflation more about the “flation” than the “stag” so far
- Assessing global confidence
- What’s the Chicago Business Barometer telling us about the state of the US economy? (note, published prior to the Mar 31 release of the March report)
- Monetary policy responses (and lack thereof)
- Longer-term charts at breaking point
Yen Breakout Throws Up Fundamental Questions
- One long-term chart from our Global Macro Outlook that's "suddenly" worth watching: the yen versus the US dollar going back to the mid-70s.The "intermediate" trendline in this case goes back to 1990, but that and the 50-yr trend were broken in March (we've noted this trendline previously).
- That's interesting on a technical basis, but it throws up many questions of what it represents fundamentally.
- Fundamentally, this has come with BoJ's bond yield intervention, contrasted with a sharp rise in US yields as the Fed tightening amid a relatively strong economy vs Japan's.
- So long as US yields can continue to put in new highs and Japanese yields remain capped, upside pressure on dollar-yen looks like it will continue: 125.09 is the March high and the bull trigger.
Source: Bloomberg, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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