GLOBAL MACRO: South Korea Export Data Gives Some Positive Global Growth Signals

South Korea's first 20-days trade data for Nov provide some comfort around the global trade outlook, although this is just one indicator. The first chart below overlays the daily average of the first 20-days of export growth (y/y) against global trade growth in y/y terms. 

• We may see some softening in global trade volumes in the first part of Q4, but the Nov export bounce in South Korea suggests it could be a shallow one. All else equal though a better South Korea export backdrop is typically a positive sign for global trade/growth momentum.
• The detail on South Korean exports shows some slowing in vehicle exports, but semiconductor exports rose to 42.5%y/y, after y/y momentum eased in recent months from mid-year highs near 60%.
• Taiwan export orders data, which printed late yesterday, showed a slightly better than expected result, rising 4.9% y/y, versus 3.8% forecast for Oct (we are still below earlier YTD highs above 10% for export orders).
• Today's South Korea data also showed export growth to China running ahead of the US, see the second chart below. For a long period of time export growth to the US has been running at a faster clip.
• This may reflect better growth signs given China stimulus measures. The US and trade outlook is quite uncertain as we progress into 2025 though, with the returning Trump administration generally seen as US growth positive but potentially quite trade negative. 

Fig 1: South Korea First 20-days Exports & Global Trade Volumes - Y/Y