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MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - August 2024 Release

  • It’s another big UK data week with labour market data Tuesday, inflation Wednesday, activity data (including Q2 GDP) on Thursday and retail sales Friday.
  • Note we will get another reading of all of these data ahead of the September MPC meeting.
  • We look at two different ways of analysing private sector regular wages and think a downside surprise to the BOE's forecast looks hard to acheive without meaningful revisions.
  • Headline inflation is expected to pick up - driven by utilities prices - while services and FAT are expected to continue to disinflate. Within services there is focus on accommodation prices, rents and air fares.
For the full preview including summaries of sellside views see:

UK_Data_Preview_2024_08_Release.pdf

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