Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Today all eyes will be on US inflation and the Bank of Canada’s policy decision, as markets look for the BOC to follow the Fed’s lead.
UK Monthly GDP / Index of Services / IP / Construction / Trade (0700 BST)
The round of May data for the UK will likely see month-on-month GDP, IP, manufacturing and services all but flatlining. GDP is seen at 0%, up from the -0.3% recorded in April, but leaving the UK facing a near-certain negative Q2 reading. Industrial production and manufacturing output are also seen at 0% m/m, consensus readings show, picking up from the negative readings last month but still underlining the weaknesses across the economy in the three months from April.
Services are expected to see a very modest 0.1% increase m/m, despite the impact on consumer spending as the 'cost-of-living crisis' continues to bite.
Germany Final CPI (0700 BST) / France Final CPI (0745 BST)
German headline inflation is seen confirmed at -0.1% m/m and +8.2% y/y in the harmonized reading, whilst inflation looks not yet beyond the peak in France at +0.8% m/m and +6.5% y/y.
Eurozone Industrial Production (1000 BST)
Euro area industrial production will again feel the squeeze of supply chain disruptions and commodity price inflation, anticipated to see a modest +0.3% expansion compared to the previous month and May 2021. This would be a significant recovery from -2.0% y/y seen in April. A weaker print is probable, as May PMIs began to gauge a drop off in demand.
US CPI (1330 BST)
Consensus has headline CPI inflation rising +1.1% M/M in June after an equally rampant +1.0% M/M as energy accelerated even further on a large rise in gasoline as well electricity price increases.
Core inflation is seen dipping to a ‘large’ +0.5% M/M (av. 0.54% M/M) after surprisingly accelerating from 0.57% to 0.63% in May for the strongest since Jun’21. The report comes with a 75bp hike on Jul 27 seen as locked in and would likely require a very large surprise to change this. However, as in the approach to last week’s strong payrolls, large market moves have opened sizeable two-sided risk to expectations for both the Sep FOMC and meetings further out.
MNI's full report can be found here.
Bank of Canada Policy Decision (1500 BST)
Following Friday’s employment data which saw the unemployment rate fall to 4.9%, little stands in the way of the expected 75bp hike to 2.25% from the BoC on Wednesday. Considering the neutral rate of 2-3%, this implies that the BOC could be heading towards the end of their tightening cycle.
See our in-depth preview here.
There are no key policymaker speeches of note scheduled for today, however the BOC’s press conference will be held at 1600 BST and the Fed’s beige book will be published at 1900 BST.| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 13/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Index of Production |
| 13/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 13/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | Trade Balance |
| 13/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | Index of Services |
| 13/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | ** | | UK | UK Monthly GDP |
| 13/07/2022 | 0600/0800 | *** |  | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13/07/2022 | 0645/0845 | *** |  | FR | HICP (f) |
| 13/07/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | Industrial production |
| 13/07/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 13/07/2022 | - | *** |  | CN | Trade |
| 13/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | CPI |
| 13/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 13/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | | CA | BOC Monetary Policy Report | |
| 13/07/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 13/07/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 13/07/2022 | 1500/1100 | | CA | BOC press conference | |
| 13/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 13/07/2022 | 1700/1300 | *** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 13/07/2022 | 1800/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
| 13/07/2022 | 1800/1400 | | US | Federal Reserve Beige Book |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.