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The key focus for Thursday is the BOE decision at 1200 BST. Prior to this, Norges Bank will announce its deposit rate at 0900 BST. Other points of interest include German factory orders, French IP and Turkish inflation.
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting saw the Fed raise rates by 0.50% to a targte range of 0.75% to 1.0% and announce the official June 1 start of bond roll-offs from the balance sheet.
German Factory Orders (0700 BST)
Following the -2.2% m/m decline in February, the March print for German factory orders will highlight the effects of surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions worsened by the onset of the Ukraine war. A softer -1.1% m/m contraction is anticipated, and a -0.7% decline compared to March 2021.
French Industrial Production (0745 BST)
French industrial production is seen contracting -0.2% m/m and softening to +1.4% y/y, down 1pp from February when manufacturing output and pharmaceuticals saw a substantial decline.
Turkish Inflation (0800 BST)
Turkey continues to struggle with soaring CPI, expected to rise to +67.80% y/y in March, up 6.7pp from February as added energy price pressures soar. This is a fresh multi-decade high, however, will have no policy implications with the CBRT holding the benchmark one-week repo rate steady at 14% all year due to unorthodox economic theory of the President that higher interest rates don’t curb inflation.
Norges Bank Decision (0900 BST)
A policy rate change is unlikely in the Norges bank May meeting, with the next hike pencilled in for June as previously signalled. This follows the 25bp hike to 0.75% in March. Downside growth risks of high energy prices and China’s lockdowns underline confidence in this decision. For our comprehensive preview click here.
BOE Decision (1200 BST)
Economists are unanimously expecting a 25bp hike at the BOE’s May meeting, despite markets seeing a 20% chance of a 50bp hike. The focus here will be on changing of the forward guidance statement away from “further tightening may be appropriate in coming months”. Click here for the comprehensive MNI preview, summarising 22 sellside views.
The ECB's Chief Economist Philip R. Lane is the only Eurozone policymaker due to speak Thursday. The BOE press conference is due at 1230 BST, with Governor Andrew Bailey in the hot seat- links to both events are in the calendar below. There may be a raft of post-FOMS appearances by Fed officials.
|05/05/2022||0730/0930||**||EU||IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI|
|05/05/2022||0800/1000||***||NO||Norges Bank Rate Decision|
|05/05/2022||0830/0930||**||UK||IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final)|
|05/05/2022||1000/1200||EU||ECB Lane Speech on Euro Area Outlook|
|05/05/2022||1100/1200||***||UK||Bank Of England Interest Rate|
|05/05/2022||1130/1230||UK||BOE post-MPC press conference|
|05/05/2022||1230/0830||**||US||Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity|
|05/05/2022||1230/0830||**||US||WASDE Weekly Import/Export|
|05/05/2022||1300/1400||UK||Bank of England DMP Survey|
|05/05/2022||1340/0940||CA||BOC Deputy Schembri speech to Indigenous group.|
|05/05/2022||1430/1030||**||US||Natural Gas Stocks|
|05/05/2022||1530/1130||*||US||US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result|
|05/05/2022||1530/1130||**||US||US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result|
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