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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
- Along with every analyst preview that we have read, the MNI Markets team expects a 25bp hike this week. Markets are pricing in just under 31bp for the meeting, which if at least a 25bp hike is assumed, equates to just over a 20% probability of a 50bp hike.
- We think that the biggest thing that could impact market pricing would be the removal of “coming months” from the forward guidance.
- Without a change in the guidance, a 50bp hike would be hawkish, even if it is accompanied by a wafer thin majority.
- Conversely, if there are more than 2 MPC members voting for rates to remain on hold (with Cunliffe and probably Tenreyro joined by one other) this would likely see a dovish reaction.
- For the full MNI preview including the summaries of 22 sellside views, see the full document.
Full document:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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