Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
All eyes will be on today’s FOMC meeting outcome due late Wednesday, with a swift change in expectations now geared towards a 75bp hike on the back of press reports and another upside inflation surprise.
Second-tier data releases on Wednesday’s radar:
Final France CPI (0745 BST)
Seen confirming a +0.6% m/m and +5.2% y/y acceleration in May, the final inflation print due today would be the highest seen since 1985. The prelim report saw energy prices up 28% y/y, remaining the key upwards driver of prices, although substantial price growth was evident again in the broader economy, led by food (+4.2% y/y) and services (+3.2% y/y).
Eurozone Industrial Production (1000 BST)
Euro area IP is set to contract again in the April data, with a year-on-year 1.1% fall anticipated after a 0.8% contraction seen in March. On the month a modest +0.5% recovery is pencilled in, however, the downside risks to this are substantial given the worsening supply chain crisis following implications of renewed Chinese lockdowns.
US Empire Manufacturing Index, Retail & Import/Export Prices (1330 BST)
A June improvement is projected for the volatile NY Empire State manufacturing index, re-entering positive territory in June at +2.6 points, following -11.6 last month as demand weakened.
The advance retail print is pointing towards a slow month of May, at a weak +0.1% m/m growth following +0.9% m/m in April. Taking automobiles out of the equation hints at the sector remaining more resilient at +0.7% m/m. With inflation running hot and prices at the gas pump booming, consumer demand is seen weakening in upcoming months.
FOMC Rate Decision (1900 BST)
Despite indications of demand slowing, another upside surprise of inflation at 8.6% in May, the highest in over 40 years, along with the U Michigan inflation expectations report has the Fed looking positioned to deliver a more hawkish hike. A WSJ article highlighted that frontloading with a 75bp hike has become a liable prospect, which is now being fully priced by markets.
For our in-depth preview of today’s meetingclick here.
Key policymaker appearances on today’s schedule are once again ECB execs, as the Fed and BOE are holding policy meetings. The ECB’s Fabio Panetta will hold an introduction at the ECON meeting, however, President Christine Lagarde in conversation with Jose Vinals at the LSE will be of greater interest. Links are in the calendar below.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 15/06/2022 | 0645/0845 | *** |  | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** |  | EU | industrial production |
| 15/06/2022 | 0900/1100 | * | | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15/06/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 15/06/2022 | 1215/0815 | ** |  | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 15/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Retail Sales |
| 15/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 15/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/06/2022 | 1300/0900 | * | | CA | Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association) |
| 15/06/2022 | 1315/1515 | | EU | ECB Panetta Intro Statement on Digital Euro at ECON | |
| 15/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Business Inventories |
| 15/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 15/06/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 15/06/2022 | 1620/1820 | | EU | ECB Lagarde in conversation with Jose Vinals at LSE | |
| 15/06/2022 | 1800/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement |
| 15/06/2022 | 2000/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
| 16/06/2022 | 2245/1045 | *** |  | NZ | GDP |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.