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Tuesday's data focuses mainly on Germany, the UK and the US. The Fed begins a two-day meet, with the outcome expected Wednesday.
UK Public Sector Finances See Deficit Grow (0700 GMT)
UK public sector net borrowing (excluding banks) is projected to have grown to £18.5bln in December from £17.4bln in November, which accounted for 96.1% of GDP, the highest since 1963. In comparison, in pre-pandemic February 2020 the UK government was running a slight budget surplus of £0.39bln.
However, an increase in debt interest payments hints at a higher-than-forecast outcome. Interest payments are likely to rise substantially from the GBP4.5 disbursed in November, after the retail price index surged by 1.1 percentage point between September and October, the reference period on which December interest payments are based. The November outlay was based upon a meagre 0.1 percentage point rise in RPI.
Spanish PPI (Hopefully) Peaks (0800 GMT)
Spanish factory gate inflation could give clues on whether inflationary pressures have peaked following an all-time record high of +33.1% y/y in November, on the back of soaring energy prices up 88.3% y/y followed by intermediate goods up 20.5% y/y.
German IFO Seen Higher (0900 GMT)
Germany’s ifo index forecasts were adjusted higher yesterday following surprisingly strong PMI readings recovering by +3.5-4.9 points on December readings, beating expectations which all saw the numbers continuing to slide. Business expectations are seen improving to 93.0 in January from 92.6 in December, as the German economy expects pandemic pressures and restrictions to relax and bottlenecks to show signs of easing in the upcoming six months.
The current assessment is projected to weaken slightly to 96.3 from 96.9, whilst the overall business climate index is predicted to moderate only marginally to 94.6, continuing the seven-month downward trend.
UK CBI Industrial Trends Sees Manufacturing Soften (1100 GMT)
Today’s UK CBI trends reading will likely also paint a picture similar picture of a weakening manufacturing sector, following yesterday’s manufacturing PMI reading which saw a dip of one point. Total orders are expected to dampen a further two points to 22, following November’s record reading of 26. Business optimism is seen recovering six points to 8 in January, making it the fourth reading above the breakeven point in the last three years.
Material, skilled labour shortages and inflation were cited as key downwards pressures, however new strong output and new order growth is likely to trump these.
US Consumer Confidence to Dip (1500 GMT)
Analysts are forecasting another fall in consumer confidence for January, dipping to 111.9 from 115.8 in January, largely on the back of continued inflation pressures and staff shortages resulting from both a tight labour market and covid-related absences.
There are no key policymaker appearances on the schedule for today as things quieten down ahead of upcoming central bank meetings.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 25/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 25/01/2022 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 25/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1100/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1400/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 25/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 25/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 25/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.