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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Friday's data kicks off with German and French IP followed by the key highlights that markets will be watching: the flash estimate for Eurozone inflation and US nonfarm payrolls.
German and French Industrial Production to Weaken (0700 / 0745 GMT)
Germany: Analysts are predicting a further dampening of industrial production to 1.0% m/m in November, from the surprise boost of 2.8% m/m in October on the back of strong capital goods production and recovery in automobile production. Supply bottlenecks continue to reduce production capacities, and annual IP growth is expected to slide -0.8% y/y in November from -0.6% y/y in October.
France: French IP is also set to dampen on the monthly reading for November, to 0.5% m/m from 0.9% m/m in October which saw a recovery in transport equipment production. However, a rebound of 0.6% y/y is anticipated on the annual growth readings, up from October’s contraction of -0.5% y/y.
Eurozone Flash Inflation, Retail Trade and Consumer Sentiment (1000 GMT)
Today’s prelim headline inflation data for the Eurozone sees December CPI dampening marginally across the field. Annual headline inflation is expected to step down in December to 4.8% y/y from 4.9% y/y (core to come in at 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y), with monthly inflation to reduce to 0.3% m/m from 0.4% m/m. Germany’s headline inflation data came in at 5.3% y/y yesterday, unable to quite confirm that inflation has peaked, but underlining comments from ECB officials that we may be near the top.
Retail sales are expected to decline in November’s reading for the Eurozone to -0.5% m/m from 0.2% m/m, whilst the emergence of the Omicron variant saw November's consumer confidence slump further, projected to equal the estimate of -8.3 at a nine-month low.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Strong (1330 GMT)
US nonfarm payrolls are projected to double in December, at a forecasted 425k compared to 210k in November 2021. It’s worth noting that spreads on these surveys are large and downside risks are likely to be stronger. The unemployment rate is anticipated to step down further to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, however this data is somewhat stale as it omits the recent surge in omicron variant cases.
Hence, focus in the upcoming week will be on Fed-speak following the FOMC meeting minutes from yesterday. With inflation outpacing Fed expectations, markets are pricing a likely hike in March.
Today’s policymaker appearances are at the annual American Economic Association meeting and include San Francisco Fed’s President Daly on US monetary policy for 2022, followed by appearance by BOE MPC member and Atlanta Fed’s President Bostic. The ECB's executive member Schnabel joins Mann and Bostic on Saturday for further speeches.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 07/01/2022 | 0645/0745 | ** |  | CH | unemployment |
| 07/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | industrial production |
| 07/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | trade balance |
| 07/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | * |  | UK | Halifax House Price Index |
| 07/01/2022 | 0730/0830 | ** | | CH | retail sales |
| 07/01/2022 | 0745/0845 | ** |  | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 07/01/2022 | 0745/0845 | * | | FR | industrial production |
| 07/01/2022 | 0745/0845 | * | | FR | foreign trade |
| 07/01/2022 | 0745/0845 | * | | FR | current account |
| 07/01/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 07/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 07/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Business Climate Indicator |
| 07/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 07/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | retail sales |
| 07/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 07/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | US | Employment Report |
| 07/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 07/01/2022 | 1600/1600 | | UK | BOE Mann at CFR meeting | |
| 07/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 07/01/2022 | 1715/1715 | | UK | BOE Mann on panel at AEA | |
| 07/01/2022 | 1715/1215 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 07/01/2022 | 2000/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.