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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Following the Fed and BOC decisions Wednesday, Thursday’s data schedule sees German consumer sentiment and UK distributive trends in the morning, followed the SARB interest rate announcement and then US durable goods, labour market and flash GDP data in the afternoon.
German GFK Consumer Climate to Fall Further (0700 GMT)
Consumer confidence is seen slipping further for February, with consensus predicting a reading of -8.0, down from -6.8 in January. The beginning of 2022 saw economic and income expectations dip considerably, with the propensity to buy falling drastically due to rising covid cases, restrictions for unvaccinated and +5.3% y/y inflation in December.
Upside surprises could however be substantial, following quarantine periods shortened, with both infections and inflation likely to have peaked.
UK CBI Distributive Trades to Recover Slightly (1100 GMT)
The UK distributive trades survey will provide the first snapshot of the health of the UK retail sector for January. In December work-from-home recommendations and surging covid cases suppressed reported and expected sales, resulting in a 31 point fall to 8.
Analysts are looking for signs of recovery to a reading of 10 in January, with outlooks regarding covid regaining some stability and supply bottlenecks possibly beginning to ease.
SARB to Hike (1300 GMT)
The South African central bank will announces its repo rate decision, with markets pricing a 25bp hike to 4.00% after the SARB surprised with their first hike in three years and signalled a minimum one hike per quarter at the November meeting.
Headline inflation hit 5.9% y/y in December, pushing prices to the upper end of the SARB’s target CPI range of 3-6%. Transport (particularly fuel) and food costs made up the bulk of inflationary pressures, with local demand muted in South Africa due to high unemployment and a large output gap. Further inflation growth could likely lead to 125-200bp of hikes this year.
US Durable Goods to Dampen (1330 GMT)
Durable goods orders are seen sinking to -0.6% in the December prelim reading, down three points from November. A softer fall is projected for durables excluding transportation to 0.4% from 0.9%.
Weaker numbers for December imply dampened industrial activity chiefly due to supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures, implying lower consumer confidence.
US Jobless Claims to Fall Again (1330 GMT)
US labour market data could see jobless claims falling 20k to 265k for the week ending January 22 following a jump of 55k claims due to surging omicron cases.
Continuing claims are projected to increase by 30k to 1665k for the week ending January 15, increasing for the second week in a row also largely due to pandemic-induced work disruptions.
US GDP Set for Strong Q4 (1330 GMT)
The advance reading for Q4 2021 sees economic growth continue to pick up to 5.3% from 2.3% in Q3 which both exceed the pre-pandemic 2019 Q4 GDP growth level of 1.9% on the back of increased inventories and household consumption.
The US economy remains heated by inflation running at 7% in December, the tight labour market and persistent supply chain issues. Yesterday’s meeting saw the FOMC move in line with expectations, further tapering bond buys, signalling a hike is coming and also putting QT into play for later in the year.
There are no key policymaker appearances scheduled for today.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 27/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | * |  | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/01/2022 | 1100/1100 | ** |  | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | GDP (adv) |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | * |  | CA | Payroll employment |
| 27/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAR pending home sales |
| 27/01/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 27/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 27/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 27/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.