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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Thursday will see markets watching for German IP, and Canadian and US trade balances. Mexican inflation and the NBP meeting are on the schedule from the EM side.
Germany Industrial Productions (0700 BST)
Following less contraction than anticipated in the May factory orders yesterday, today’s May IP print is seen at a modest +0.4% m/m, down from +0.7% m/m in April. Compared to 2021, a -1.8% y/y May decline is pencilled in, 0.4pp better than seen the month before.
Mexico Inflation (1200 BST)
June CPI is set to see no relief for Mexico, likely ticking up around 0.3pp to just shy of 8.0% at a fresh 21-year high. On the month an acceleration of +0.83% is anticipated, up from a milder +0.18% m/m in May. It appears that the May easing of prices was more transitory than hoped for and goods and food price inflation wil again account for the bulk of the rise.
Core inflation remains hot on headline CPI’s tail and is forecasted to also tick up 0.3pp to around 7.6% y/y.
The June Banxico meeting saw a unanimous 75bp hike, leaving the door open to another hike of that magnitude at the August meeting.
Canada Trade Balance (1330 BST)
The Canadian international merchandise trade balance due for May is pencilled in at CAD 2.50bln, up CAD 1.0bln from April. Record high imports were seen last month as consumer goods imports increased as supply normalized again. Energy imports are likely to expand again in May as gas and petroleum prices soar.
US Trade Balance (1330 BST)
The US trade deficit is expected to decrease by around USD 2.4blin to stand at USD 84.7bln in May. As the US ramps up oil production to service economies with sanctions placed upon Russia, the country is positioned to continue decreasing their trade deficit over coming months.
National Bank of Poland Meeting
The NBP is likely to hike its policy rate by 75bps to 6.75% today in hopes to ease the elevated inflationary pressures, following June CPI surging to 15.6% y/y.
Risks may be skewed to the upside slightly, but the board has recently mentioned that it was not in favour of maintaining its 'sharp' 100bps+ hike stance.
See our comprehensive preview of the decision here.
Key policymaker appearances on today’s schedule include the ECB’s Philip Lane, the BOE’s Catherine Mann and Huw Pill, followed by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed's James Bullard in the evening.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 07/07/2022 | 0545/0745 | ** |  | CH | Unemployment |
| 07/07/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07/07/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | NO | Norway GDP |
| 07/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | * |  | UK | Halifax House Price Index |
| 07/07/2022 | 0945/1145 |  | EU | ECB Lane on Green Transition at OECD Forum | |
| 07/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Jobless Claims |
| 07/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 07/07/2022 | 1300/1400 | | UK | BOE Mann Speaks at LC-MA Forum | |
| 07/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | * |  | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 07/07/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 07/07/2022 | 1500/1100 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 07/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/07/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 07/07/2022 | 1605/1705 | | UK | BOE Pill Speaks at Sheffield Hallam University | |
| 07/07/2022 | 1700/1300 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 07/07/2022 | 1700/1300 | | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.