Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday's data sees the release of Manufacturing PMIs across major economies, which will offer an updated insight into the global supply chain crisis. French inflation data will also be released, followed by Eurozone and German unemployment numbers which offer further insight into the recovery of the European labour market.
French Flash CPI to Slow (0745 GMT)The flash estimates for France are forecasted to come in at a deflationary -0.2% m/m for both the HICP and CPI readings, down from +0.2% m/m in December. On the year, headline inflation for January is projected to soften to 2.5% y/y from 2.8% y/y. The harmonized reading is seen remaining slightly higher at +2.9% y/y, half a point weaker than the December print.
Markets are likely to be expecting a higher inflation reading for France, following yesterday’s Spanish and German inflation prints remaining well above expectations. The ECB is still seeing inflation at or below +2.0% y/y for the end of 2022, despite increased upside risks due to political tension regarding Russia and increased gas prices.
Germany Unemployment (0855 GMT)
The German unemployment rate is forecast to stay stable at 5.2% in January and unemployment is seen reducing by 6,000, representing a much softer reduction than the monthly average of -31,000k for 2021.
Eurozone Unemployment (1000 GMT)
With the ECB policy decision on Thursday, policymakers will be looking to the labour market for some confidence in continued recovery following disappointingly weaker recoveries on headline inflation prints in Germany and Spain yesterday. Consensus is looking for Eurozone unemployment to edge down to 7.1% in December’s print, improving from 7.2% in November and falling for the eighth consecutive month.
Final Manufacturing PMI Prints for January
Today’s data sees the release of manufacturing PMIs for January across major economies, all seen remaining in line with flash estimates. Germany and the Eurozone are seeing recoveries in manufacturing PMIs on December’s numbers, however all others are set to dampen with the US is anticipating the largest drop. It is worth noting that many of these readings are off the back of record-breaking prints over the past six months.
Analysts will be closely eyeing any easing of supply bottlenecks and supply chain disruptions which continue to boost prices in the economy via input price inflation.
Spain (0815 GMT): Spain kicks off the manufacturing PMI round, seen stepping down to 56.0 from 56.2 in December.
Italy (0845 GMT): Italy’s reading is seen retreating to 61.2 from 62.0 in December, following November's all-time high of 62.8 and strong growth rates.
France (0850 GMT): France’s manufacturing PMI is projected to moderate to 55.5 in January, from 55.6 in December.
Germany (0855 GMT): Germany’s reading is seen recovering in January, increasing by over three points to 60.5, from 57.4 in December.
Eurozone (0900 GMT): The Eurozone is expecting an improvement in manufacturing for the second consecutive month, expected to improve by one point to 59.0 for January from 58.0 in December.
UK (0930 GMT): The UK is seeing manufacturing slide by one point in January, coming in at 56.9 at a fresh ten-month low albeit substantially stronger than pre-pandemic levels.
US PMI (1445 GMT): The US manufacturing has been following a downward trajectory since the July high, with the final January index expected to dip 2.7 points to 55.0 in January.
There are no key policymaker appearences on the schedule for today.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 01/02/2022 | 0700/0700 | * |  | UK | Nationwide House Price Index |
| 01/02/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | DE | retail sales |
| 01/02/2022 | 0730/0830 | ** |  | SE | Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/02/2022 | 0730/0830 | ** | | SE | Services PMI |
| 01/02/2022 | 0730/0830 | ** |  | CH | Retail sales |
| 01/02/2022 | 0745/0845 | *** |  | FR | HICP (p) |
| 01/02/2022 | 0815/0915 | ** |  | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/02/2022 | 0845/0945 | ** |  | IT | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/02/2022 | 0850/0950 | ** | | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/02/2022 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 01/02/2022 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/02/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01/02/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE M4 |
| 01/02/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 01/02/2022 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 01/02/2022 | - | *** |  | US | Domestic made vehicle sales |
| 01/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 01/02/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 01/02/2022 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | * | | US | Construction spending |
| 01/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 01/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 01/02/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.