Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The week comes to a close with French and Turkish trade data in the morning, before focus turns towards US nonfarm payrolls and Canadian labour force data in the afternoon.
France Current Account / Trade (0745 BST)
Following Thursday’s Canadian trade data which saw Canada’s surplus boosted by oil exports to a to a 24-year high, a significant divergence between net oil importers and exporters is strongly evident in May data.
As energy import prices soar, the French trade deficit is anticipated to widen a further EUR 0.5bln to EUR 12.650bln. This remains under record 14.018bln deficit recorded in March.
Turkey Current Account / Trade (0800 BST)
The Turkish current account balance is seen plunging USD 4.0bln to a deficit of USD 6.76bln in May, dipping back to January levels following a brief recovery in the month prior. As a net oil exporter, this continues to be a key buffer for the Turkish trade balance. However, as the lira continues to appreciate, import costs again sharply outpace increased exports.
Italy Industrial Production (0900 BST)
A 1.4% m/m contraction is penciled in for Italian industrial production in May, following +1.6% m/m growth in April. On the year IP is set to remain strong, softening 0.3pp to +3.9% y/y growth for May.
Brazil Inflation (1300 BST)
The sixth-largest EM economy in the G20 is seeing inflationary pressures continue to build in the June print, anticipated to accelerate by close to 0.2pp to +11.94% in June. Compared to the previous month, prices will likely quicken by 0.25pp to +0.72% m/m.
Despite energy price inflation easing in May, transportation and food costs continue to quicken, pushing further above the 3.5% target rate set by the Central Bank of Brazil.
Canada Labour Force Survey (1330 BST)
A softer +20.0k increase in employment is forecasted for the Canadian labour force in June, close to half of that seen in May. This won’t budge the record low 5.1% unemployment rate. Perhaps of more interest is the hourly wage rate for permanent employees, which is projected to quicken by 0.9pp to +5.4% y/y in June adding further pressure to wage cost inflation.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (1330 BST)
Likely to again steal the spotlight, US nonfarm payrolls are set to slip close to 120k to around 270k for June. A similar 100k fall is expected for private payrolls, leaving the June increase at around 235k. The US unemployment rate should as such remain unchanged at 3.6%.
See our in-depth preview here.
Today’s policymaker schedule is relatively quiet with ECB President Christine Lagarde opening the Les Rencontres Economiques event and appearances by New York Fed's John Williams.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 08/07/2022 | 0645/0845 | * |  | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 08/07/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Current Account |
| 08/07/2022 | 0800/1000 | * |  | IT | Industrial Production |
| 08/07/2022 | 1155/1355 |  | EU | ECB Lagarde at Les Rencontres Economiques | |
| 08/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 08/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Employment Report |
| 08/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 08/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 08/07/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Wholesale Trade |
| 08/07/2022 | 1500/1100 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 08/07/2022 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
| 09/07/2022 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CPI |
| 09/07/2022 | 0130/0930 | *** | | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 09/07/2022 | 1330/1530 | | EU | ECB Schnabel on Green Economy |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.