MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: The Week Ahead

Monday kicks off with German factory-gate inflation and Eurozone construction output this morning, and little data of interest for the rest of the day.

Germany PPI (0700 BST)

The May print will likely see German PPI hold steady at a hot +33.5% y/y, the highest recorded year-on-year level, whilst slowing on the month to +1.5% from the steep 2.8% uptick of April. The price of energy remains the key culprit (up 87.3% y/y in April), as commodities have soared alongside key intermediate goods involving metals, fertilisers, livestock feed and wood since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Eurozone Construction (1000 BST)

Construction output in the euro area is anticipated to weaken in the April print. This data is somewhat stale but will highlight increased supply issues halting production on the back of the Ukraine war shock and China’s lockdowns. The June construction PMI highlighted fast reductions in output and new orders not seen since Feb 2021, however by June some supply-chain easing had been noted.

The week ahead:

CPI Releases: UK CPI (Wednesday) is projected to tick up a further 0.2pp to 9.2% in May, with the core measure expected to a modest 0.2pp step down to a very hot 6.0%. The BOE highlighted last week that the core print is of particular concern, outpacing levels seen in the US and Eurozone. Canadian CPI (Wednesday) is seen reaching around the 7.0% mark in May, which would outpace or match the 1991 high of 6.9%.

Consumer Confidence Releases: The European Commission’s flash Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip half a point further to -21.6 in the May flash, whilst the UK June GfK survey (Thursday) sees a further one-point slide to -41.

PMI releases: Thursday sees the round of S&P Global’s flash June round has manufacturing and services PMIs weakening by around 0.5-0.9 points across the board as inflationary pressures are likely to see slowdowns in new orders and demand.

Central Bank Meets: A 25bp hike is on the cards for Norway (Thursday), bringing Norsk Bank’s policy rate to 1.00%, whilst Mexico (also Thursday) sees a 75bp hike to 7.75%. Our in-depth previews will be coming out in the next few days.

There are numerous key policymaker appearances on today’s schedule following the volatile last week and a half for Central Banks and markets. Opening remarks at TechUK by the BOE’s Jonathan Haskel are due, followed by the key highlight, the BOE’s Catherine Mann at MNI’s connect event, where we will be looking for insights into UK economic and policy developments following last week’s MPC meeting (sign up here) St. Louis Fed's James Bullard will be speaking today, whilst on the ECB front President Christine Lagarde, Fabio Panetta and Philip Lane are scheduled to speak.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
20/06/2022	0100/0900			CN	PBOC LPR announcement
20/06/2022	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/06/2022	0800/0900			UK	BOE Haskel Opening TechUK Policy Leadership Conference
20/06/2022	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
20/06/2022	1300/1500			EU	ECB Lagarde Intro at European Parliament
20/06/2022	1300/1400			UK	BOE Mann Panels MNI Connect Event
20/06/2022	1500/1700			EU	ECB Lagarde Intro as ESRB Chair at European Parliament
20/06/2022	1645/1245			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
20/06/2022	1700/1900			EU	ECB Panetta Interview with Federico Fubini at Nonfiction Festival
20/06/2022	1930/2130			EU	ECB Lane Speech at Society of Professional Economists