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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Tuesday’s data points of interest will the both the UK labour market report and US housing starts, with the eurozone’s June final HICP print also due.
UK Labour Market Report (0700 BST)
This morning’s May/June labour market report is expected to be strong again, with the May ILO unemployment rate remaining in line with the pre-pandemic rate at 3.8%. Weekly earnings continue to maintain robust momentum. Earnings ex. bonuses could edge up by 0.1pp to +4.3% 3m/yoy. Average weekly earnings including bonuses are anticipated to soften by 0.1pp to a strong +6.7%.
A further 70,000 increase in payrolled employees in June is also expected, as the UK labour market continues to tighten. This provides support for a 50bp hike in August as the BOE grapples with an inflation rate likely to have hit 9.3% in June (due Wednesday).
Euro Area Final CPI (1000 BST)
The final June CPI print should confirm the flash estimate and record high +8.6% y/y and +0.8% m/m, leaving core inflation running at +3.7% y/y. The increase was driven by both higher gas prices, and significantly strong gains in Spain and Italy, with the slowdown in German CPI unable to offer relief to the aggregate print. The 0.1pp deceleration in core inflation could offer some hope looking forward.
The ECB is set to meet on Thursday, where consensus expects a 25bp hike, taking the main refinancing rate to 0.250%. Talk of a 50bp hike is probable, however unlikely to materialise as the ECB places particular value on predictability.
US Housing Starts (1330 BST)
As the US housing market feels the heat of high mortgage rates and building costs alongside falling real disposable income, a small 30k increase to around 1580k in June sees housing starts remain below the average of 1740 seen from November through to April. This is +2.0% m/m compared to the -14.4% m/m dive of May. Building permits are forecasted to have contracted again by around -2.8% m/m in June, following -7.0% m/m in May.
Policymaker appearances due today are the BOE Governor Bailey and Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard.
UK Unemployment at Pre-Pandemic Levels:
Source: ONS
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 19/07/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 19/07/2022 | 0800/1000 |  | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey | |
| 19/07/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (f) |
| 19/07/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 19/07/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Construction Production |
| 19/07/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** |  | US | Housing Starts |
| 19/07/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 19/07/2022 | 1700/1800 | | UK | BOE Bailey at Mansion House Dinner | |
| 19/07/2022 | 1835/1435 | | US | Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.