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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Friday's data schedule features Swedish inflation, UK retail sales, the French final inflation print and Eurozone construction in the morning. In the afternoon focus will be on Canadian retail sales and European consumer confidence.
Swedish Inflation to Weaken (0700 GMT)
Swedish headline targeted inflation CPIF is seen weakening to +3.9% y/y in January, following December’s inflation growth of +4.1% y/y. This would break a six-month growth streak, with December’s inflation report reaching the highest level since 2008 as electricity prices notably increased the fastest seen this century. On the month, inflation is projected to dip to -0.7% m/m, a substantial decline from December’s reading of +1.3% m/m.
The core reading paints a differing picture and is expected to step up 0.2% to +1.9% y/y in January.
UK Retail Sales (0700 GMT)
UK retail sales rose by 0.9% in January, according to analysts, staging only a modest rebound from the jaw-dropping 3.7% plunge recorded in December.
Non-food sales likely drove the gains, with shoppers returning to pubs and restaurants after the December outbreak of Omicrom forced many to stay indoors. After plunging by more than 7% between November and December, non-food sales face very easy comparatives in January. Furniture and apparel did particularly well, according to industry insiders.
French Inflation to Confirm Flash (0745 GMT)
The final print for French inflation is projected to remain in line with the flash estimates at +2.9% y/y and +0.3% m/m for January. This number saw headline CPI inch up from the 2008-high November and December readings of +2.8% y/y. The harmonised flash index was deflationary in January, inching down to 3.3% y/y from the December peak.
Despite soaring energy costs and (less severe) services and food price growth, manufactured goods prices fell in January.
Eurozone Construction Output Remaining Weak (1000 GMT)
Euro Area construction is likely to remain weak in the December print, which saw a dip to -0.2% m/m. The key driving force is expected to remain supply chain disruptions and shortages which continue to hamper the German and French construction sectors. December also saw a surge in covid cases and related absentees across sectors.
Canada Retail Trade to Fall (1330 GMT)
Analysts are forecasting a contraction in Canadian retail trade in December to -1.5% y/y down from +1.1% y/y in November. Monthly sales are also projected to have decelerated, slipping by -2.1% m/m compared to November’s expansion of 0.7% m/m. Global supply chain disruptions and shortages brought dampened Christmas retail, the effects of which are evident in this print.
European Commission Prelim Consumer Confidence (1500 GMT)
The EC consumer sentiment for February is projected to inch upwards to -8.0 from -8.5, on account of falling covid cases bolstering confidence once again.
Friday's key policymaker appearances include ECB President Christine Lagarde and Elderson, followed by the Chicago Fed's Charles Evans and New York Fed's John Williams in the afternoon. Where available, links are in the calendar below.
Source: ONS
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 18/02/2022 | 0700/0800 | *** |  | SE | Inflation report |
| 18/02/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Retail Sales |
| 18/02/2022 | 0745/0845 | *** |  | FR | HICP (f) |
| 18/02/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | EU | EZ Current Acc |
| 18/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | construction production |
| 18/02/2022 | 1300/1400 | | EU | ECB Elderson speech on industry climate risks | |
| 18/02/2022 | - | | EU | ECB Lagarde at G20 CB Governors Meeting | |
| 18/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** |  | CA | Retail Trade |
| 18/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 18/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | * | | US | Services Revenues |
| 18/02/2022 | 1500/1600 | ** | | EU | Consumer confidence indicator (p) |
| 18/02/2022 | 1515/1015 | | US | Chicago Fed's Charles Evans | |
| 18/02/2022 | 1515/1015 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 18/02/2022 | 1600/1100 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 18/02/2022 | 1830/1930 | | EU | ECB Panetta on CB digital currencies | |
| 18/02/2022 | 1830/1330 | | US | Fed Governor Lael Brainard |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.