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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Wednesday’s data schedule sees multiple key inflation readings in the spotlight, including the UK, South Africa and Canada, as well as Eurozone and US industrial production.
UK Inflation Could Stabilise (0700 GMT)
The consensus sees a further increase in headline UK inflation to +5.4% y/y in January remaining unchanged from +5.4% y/y December; an almost 30-year high. Last week analysts were pricing a further increase to +5.6% y/y, this has however been revised downwards and distortions in petrol prices as well as the recent slowdown in earnings growth introduces downside risks to forecasts.
On the month, inflation is seen contracting by -0.2% m/m, declining from +0.5% m/m in December and continuing the downwards trajectory for a third consecutive month. Household goods, food and services remain key upwards drivers, alongside energy price inflation proving persistent.
UK Factory gate prices seen lower (0700GMT)
UK producer prices are also seen easing on the annualised headline numbers. Output PPI os expected to moderate by 0.2% down to +9.1% y/y, whilst input PPI is seen edging downwards 0.1% to +13.4% y/y, however increases are expected on the month-on-month readings.
South Africa Inflation to Ease (0800 GMT)
The January South Africa inflation print is seen stepping down for the first time in six months, with analyst predicting headline inflation to edge down to +5.7% y/y after beating market forecast and hitting +5.9% y/y in December. This puts it clost to the top of the SAR’s 3-6% target range. A slowdown in CPI is also expected on the month-on-month print, which is projected to reduce to +0.2% m/m in January from +0.6% m/m in the previous reading.
Eurozone Industrial Production Remains Weakened (1000 GMT)
Eurozone IP is forecasted to contract by a smaller -0.5% y/y in December, breaking a 7-month downwards trajectory following a -1.5% y/y contraction in November, which saw a substantial fall of 9.8% y/y in capital goods production. On the monthly readings growth is seen softening to +0.3% m/m, down from +2.3% m/m in November.
Canada Inflation to Stall (1330 GMT)
Canadian headline inflation is projected to come in at +4.8% y/y in the January print, stabilising at the December level. Canadian inflation is currently running at a 30-year high, with both base effects and price growth from supply chain issues generating substantial upwards pressure. NSA month-on-month inflation is however expected to rise to +0.6% m/m, up from the previous slightly deflationary reading of -0.1% m/m.
The Bank of Canada has yet to hike since the onset of the pandemic, where interest rates were slashed from 1.75% to 0.25% where they currently remain. Upside surprises to today’s CPI data would be highly relevant and could bring forward a planned hike to as early as March.
US IP Seen Recovering (1415 GMT)
US IP is forecasted to recover in January, growing at +0.5% m/m, from the -0.1% m/m contraction of December, which saw a decline in manufacturing and utilities, almost offset my mining growth. Today’s print will give insight into the extent to which production was stalled by staff absenteeism resulting from the Omicron surge.
Capacity utilisation is seen improving to 76.8% in January, recovering 0.3% from 76.5% in December. This is above the pre-pandemic February 2022 reading of 76.3%.
Today’s key policymaker appearances include Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari, followed by a speech from BOC Deputy Lane. This evening will also see the release of the FOMC minutes. Where available, links to events are in the calendar below.
Source: ONS
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 16/02/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Consumer inflation report |
| 16/02/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Producer Prices |
| 16/02/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | NO | Norway GDP |
| 16/02/2022 | 0930/0930 | * | | UK | ONS House Price Index |
| 16/02/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | industrial production |
| 16/02/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 16/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Retail Sales |
| 16/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Import/export price index |
| 16/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | CA | CPI |
| 16/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 16/02/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 16/02/2022 | 1415/0915 | *** | | US | Industrial Production |
| 16/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | * | | US | business inventories |
| 16/02/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 16/02/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 16/02/2022 | 1600/1100 | | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 16/02/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 16/02/2022 | 1830/1330 | | CA | BOC Deputy Lane speech | |
| 16/02/2022 | 1900/1400 | * | | US | FOMC Minutes |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.