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Free AccessMNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: UK, Canada, SA Inflation Due
May inflation data is due for three key economies today: the UK, South Africa and Canada. Continued price growth is anticipated across the board as both global energy prices remain elevated and spillover inflation, especially food, sees further upticks.
Further drivers of May inflation will be China’s Covid lockdowns and sustained supply shortages boosting input costs over the month.
UK Inflation (0700 BST)
UK CPI is projected to tick up a further 0.1pp to 9.1% in May, with the core measure expected to see a modest 0.2pp step down to a still very hot 6.0%. The BOE highlighted last week that the core print is of particular concern, outpacing levels seen in the US and Eurozone.
Factory-gate inflation will also have accelerated in May, up 0.7pp and 0.8pp to +14.7% y/y and +19.4% y/y for output and input price inflation respectively. However, some analysts point to recent UK survey data that suggests factory gate inflation may be near peak.
South Africa Inflation (0900 BST)
A further 0.2pp uptick to +6.1% y/y is anticipated for South Africa’s May inflation print, which would break the 3-6% SARB target range as the central bank accelerates its normalisation path following the uptick to a 50bp hike in May. Core inflation is also seen up 0.2pp at +4.1% y/y.
Canada Inflation (1330 BST)
Canadian CPI is seen hitting the 7.3% mark in May (up 0.5pp), which would outpace or match the 1991 high of 6.9%.
The May print will include new weights and used vehicles, which were previously omitted, adding a likely upside surprise to the forecast. This jump would make for uncomfortable news for the BoC, adding likelihood to the BoC following the Fed’s example and hiking 75bp at the July 13 meeting.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (1500 BST)
The European Commission’s flash Eurozone Consumer Confidence is projected to recover by a modest 0.6 points to -20.5 in the June flash estimate. Further improvements in weak optimism are anticipated, and the key focus will again be on any big moves in price expectations.
Notable speakers on Wednesday’s schedule include the ECB’s Vice President Luis de Guindos and Exective Board member Frank Elderson, as well as the BOE’s Jon Cunliffe. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin, Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker and the BOC’s Deputy Rogers will all be due in the afternoon.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
22/06/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | ![]() | UK | Consumer inflation report |
22/06/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | ![]() | UK | Producer Prices |
22/06/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | ![]() | SE | Unemployment |
22/06/2022 | 0700/0900 | ![]() | EU | ECB de Guindos Q&A at Universidad Internacional Menendez Pelayo | |
22/06/2022 | 0735/0935 | ![]() | EU | ECB Elderson Speech on Climate & Q&A at Frankfurt School of Finance | |
22/06/2022 | 0830/0930 | * | ![]() | UK | ONS House Price Index |
22/06/2022 | 0840/0940 | ![]() | UK | BOE Cunliffe Panels Point Zero Forum | |
22/06/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** | ![]() | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
22/06/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | ![]() | CA | CPI |
22/06/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | ![]() | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
22/06/2022 | 1300/0900 | ![]() | US | Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin | |
22/06/2022 | 1400/1600 | ** | ![]() | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
22/06/2022 | 1400/1000 | ![]() | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
22/06/2022 | 1440/1040 | ![]() | CA | BOC Deputy Rogers "fireside chat" | |
22/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
22/06/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
22/06/2022 | 1600/1200 | ![]() | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
22/06/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | ![]() | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
22/06/2022 | 1730/1330 | ![]() | US | Fed's Patrick Harker and Tom Barkin |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.