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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Wednesday's key early data release is Eurozone IP, whilst all eyes will be on US consumer inflation data in the afternoon.
Eurozone Industrial Production to Weaken (1000 GMT)
Following weak French and German IP numbers, Eurozone IP is projected to have dampened in the November print to 0.2% m/m and 1.4% y/y. This follows strong October readings of 1.1% m/m and 3.3% y/y in October, which saw capital and nondurable consumer goods strengthen.
Persistent supply bottlenecks and input price inflation continue to weigh on production, although the surge in the omicron covid wave will first become apparent in next month’s release.
US CPI to Reach New Heights (1330 GMT)
US headline inflation is forecast to have risen once again in December to 7.1% y/y, up from the forty-year high of 6.8% y/y in November. On the month, headline inflation is anticipated to continue its downward trajectory for the third consecutive month, weakening to 0.4% m/m for December, from 0.8% m/m in November.
Key inflationary pressures in the November print were energy and food, which rose 33.3% y/y and 6.1% y/y respectively.
In the core readings, annual CPI is projected to hit 5.4% for December, up from 4.9% y/y previously, whilst monthly CPI is set to remain stable at 0.5% m/m.
Fed President Powell’s hawkish comments on Monday reiterated his willingness to prevent elevated inflation from becoming entrenched, reinforcing that “the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in many years, and the labour market is strong”. With the Fed appearing substantially behind the curve, markets are expecting at least three hikes this year, which could start as early as March, as well as the possibility of a Fed balance sheet reduction.
The Fed’s beige book and US treasury budget are due later in the day at 1900 GMT.
Today’s policymaker appearances include the BOE’s MPC member Jon Cunliffe, as well as Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari (click on event in calendar below for direct link).
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 12/01/2022 | 1000/1100 | ** |  | EU | Industrial Production |
| 12/01/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** |  | US | MBA weekly applications index |
| 12/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | CPI |
| 12/01/2022 | 1415/1415 |  | UK | BOE Cunliffe at Crypto Fin Conference | |
| 12/01/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 12/01/2022 | 1700/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 12/01/2022 | 1700/1200 | ** | | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS |
| 12/01/2022 | 1700/1200 | *** | | US | USDA Winter Wheat |
| 12/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 12/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 12/01/2022 | 1900/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
| 12/01/2022 | 1900/1400 | | US | Fed Beige Book |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.