September 08, 2023 09:44 GMT
Global Oil Demand To Rise 1.9mbpd YoY: JP Morgan
Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.9mbpd on the year in 2023, with demand growth forecast to slow in the last quarter of this year, JP Morgan said in a note.
- The bank forecasts global oil demand to grow by 1.9mbpd quarter on quarter in 3Q23. Demand growth is forecast to slow to 0.9mbpd in 4Q23.
- Global oil demand rose 2.1mbpd year on year in the Jan-Aug period this year, supported by demand for mobility fuels and the re-opening of China’s economy.
- China’s demand growth will account for almost 60% of global growth as recovering demand in personal mobility offset demand weakness from the property and manufacturing sector. Following a robust 2mbpd expansion in demand in 2Q, JP Morgan projects China’s oil demand to increase by 1.6mbpd YoY in 3Q23 and taper off to 0.9mbpd YoY growth in 4Q23.
- On the supply side, output from non-OPEC+ countries has grown by 2.9mbpd in Jan-Aug, led by the US (+1.9mbpd), Brazil (525kbpd), Canada (200kbpd), and China (225kbpd). Overall, non-OPEC+ producers are expected to add another 500kbpd between now and year-end, bringing total December 2022 to December 2023 exit growth to 3.4mbpd.
- The bank forecasts Iran will be able to increase its crude oil production to 3.3mbpd by year-end, while Iran targets to grow its production to 3.4mbpd by the end of September. JP Morgan said it is plausible that the country can get back to pre-sanction rates of 3.8mbpd in a relatively short time of 3-6 months as we believe Iran has been able to keep the production capacity by maintaining existing oil fields.