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Global Refinery Capacity Growth of 2mb/d in 2023

REFINING

Global refinery capacity will see the highest annual growth in years to grow by 2mb/d in 2023 according to Vitol.

  • The capacity increase is required with demand now back to 2019 levels and following several years of closures. The majority of the capacity increase occurs in the fast-growing markets East of Suez, with over half of new capacity in the Middle East, while China accounts for around a third.
  • By the end of 2023 they expect global refining capacity will be its highest ever and exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
  • Vitol expect the incremental supply should ease pricing pressure on products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
  • Diesel margins are today extending the bearish trend with spreads the lowest since early 2022 with gasoline spreads also drifting slightly lower.
    • US 321 crack down -0.3$/bbl at 27.02$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 29.16$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.3$/bbl at 22.75$/bbl


Source: Vitol

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