Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Monday:
Switzerland CPI: Kicking off this week will be Swiss inflation, which is forecast to see a modest 0.1% m/m acceleration and a 0.1pp uptick to +3.6% y/y.
At +3.5% y/y in August inflation remains relatively muted compared to neighbouring countries, however, this is the highest Swiss inflation rate in three decades.
Turkey CPI: No relief is on the cards for the Turkish economy, with inflation anticipated to accelerate for the 16th consecutive month to +84.5% y/y. The CBRT delivered a second consecutive 100bp cut in rates at their September meeting, taking markets again by surprise through the politically influenced unorthodox monetary policy approach. As the lira continues to plunge, it is unlikely that the CBRT will step in to stem inflation by conventional means any time soon.
Final Manufacturing PMIs: Final prints are due on Monday for September manufacturing PMIs, as well as first and final Spanish and Italian PMIs. Eurozone flash prints highlighted intensifying energy concerns and a continued decline in new orders.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: The ISM manufacturing PMI is anticipated to edge lower by 0.6 points to 52.2 in September. This follows the final print of the US S&P manufacturing PMI, which edged higher in the flash, breaking a five-month slide. The focus will be on another uptick in new orders, however, following the sharp fall in the Chicago PMI on Friday improvement may be weaker than expected.
Tuesday:
RBA Rate Decision: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor has telegraphed the Board will consider both a 25bps and 50bps hike at its Oct 4 meeting, with the larger hike more likely given policy sits below the Bank’s estimated neutral rate and inflation pressures remain elevated. See our state of play here.
Eurozone PPI: Tuesday’s euro area PPI data follows Friday’s hot CPI beat, which saw headline inflation reach double digits at +10.0% y/y. Factory-gate inflation is forecasted at a fresh high of +43.3% y/y in August, which precedes the September CPI flash print’s +2.8% m/m surge in industrial goods prices. As both consumer and factory-gate prices continue to surge, a 75bp hike for the late-October meeting is firmly on the table.
Wednesday:
Germany Trade Balance: The German trade surplus is expected to soften to EUR 4.0bln from 5.4bln in August. In August 2021 the surplus was EUR 14.3bln. The increase in energy imports will again be the key downwards driver, alongside a continued fall in exports as global demand for capital goods weakens.
ISM Services PMI: Following a round of global services PMIs, the US ISM services index is expected to weaken by 0.9 points to 56.0. The S&P Global index should be confirmed at a third month of negative growth for the industry. In general, the ISM indexes tend to be substantially more optimistic.
Thursday:
Eurozone Retail Trade: Retail sales are projected to contract in the August data, by -0.4% m/m (+0.3% previous) and by -1.7% y/y (-0.9% previous). This comes as no surprise as consumers tighten purse strings. Consumer sentiment for the bloc sits at a historic low, driven by income concerns fuelled by unrelenting inflationary pressures.
Friday:
Germany Industrial Production: German IP is expected to contract more sharply in the August data, with consensus looking for a -0.5% m/m reading, whilst remaining expansive compared to 2021 at +2.2% y/y.
Energy-intensive German firms have expressed plans on cutting production into the winter months under the pressure of high energy costs.
Canada Labour Force Survey: A strong labour market report is expected for Canada in September. A 20k increase in employment is pencilled in, and the unemployment rate should remain steady at 5.4%.
US Nonfarm Payrolls: The September participation rate will be of interest in Friday’s NFP data. The overall rate jumped from YTD lows to YTD highs in August and is expected to hold at these levels in Sept with 62.4%. This was seen as a marginal disinflationary pressure because of the increased labour supply which in turn helped lift the u/e rate up two-tenths to 3.65%. All in all the US labour market is set to remain very hot.
As such, another 75bp remains pencilled in for the early November FOMC meeting.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Period | Flag | Country | Release | Prior | Consensus | |
| 03/10/2022 | 2350/0850 | *** | Q3 |  | JP | Major firms' FY17 capex | -- | -- | % |
| 03/10/2022 | 2350/0850 | *** | Q3 | | JP | Major mfg diffusion index | 9 | 11 | |
| 03/10/2022 | 2350/0850 | *** | Q3 | | JP | Major non-mfg DI | 13 | 13 | |
| 03/10/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** | Sep | | JP | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | 51.0 | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 0630/0830 | *** | Sep |  | CH | CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.1 | % |
| 03/10/2022 | 0630/0830 | *** | Sep | | CH | CPI y/y | 3.5 | 3.6 | % |
| 03/10/2022 | 0700/0300 | * | Sep |  | TR | CPI m/m | 80.21 | 83.5 | % |
| 03/10/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** | Sep |  | ES | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** | Sep |  | IT | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** | Sep |  | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** | Sep |  | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** | Sep |  | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | Sep |  | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Final) | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | - | *** | Sep |  | US | NA-made light vehicle sales SAAR | 13.18 | -- | (m) |
| 03/10/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | Sep | | US | IHS Markit Mfg Index (final) | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | Sep | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index | 52.8 | 52.3 | |
| 03/10/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | Aug | | US | Construction Spending m/m | -0.4 | -0.2 | % |
| 03/10/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | 07-Oct | | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 03/10/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | 07-Oct | | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 04/10/2022 | 0130/1230 | ** | Oct |  | AU | New Home Loans m/m | -7.0 | -3.5 | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 0130/1230 | * | Oct | | AU | Total Dwellings Approved m/m | -17.2 | 9.0 | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 0430/1530 | *** | | AU | Interest Rate | 2.35 | 2.85 | % | |
| 04/10/2022 | 0430/1530 | *** | | AU | Interest Rate Change | 0.5 | 0.5 | % | |
| 04/10/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | 07-Oct | | UK | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 04/10/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | Aug | | EU | PPI m/m | 4.0 | 4.9 | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | Aug | | EU | PPI y/y | 37.9 | 43.4 | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | 01-Oct | | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month) | 10.9 | -- | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | 01-Oct | | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week) | 11.0 | -- | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | Aug | | US | Factory New Orders | -1.0 | 0.2 | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | Aug | | US | Factory Orders ex-transport | -1.1 | 0.2 | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | Aug | | US | JOLTS job openings level | 11239.0 | -- | (k) |
| 04/10/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | Aug | | US | JOLTS quits rate | 2.7 | -- | % |
| 04/10/2022 | 1530/1130 | ** | Sep | | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 2200/0900 | * | Sep | | AU | IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0030/0930 | ** | Sep | | JP | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0100/1400 | *** | Oct |  | NZ | RBNZ OCR | 3.00 | 3.5 | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Aug | | DE | Trade balance exports m/m | -2.1 | 1.5 | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Aug | | DE | Trade balance imports m/m | -1.5 | 1.2 | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Aug | | DE | Trade balance m/m | 5.4 | 4.0 | E (b) |
| 05/10/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Aug | | FR | Industrial Production m/m | -1.6 | 0.0 | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Aug | | FR | Industrial Production y/y | -1.2 | -1.5 | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Aug | | FR | Manufacturing Prod m/m | -1.6 | -- | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Aug | | FR | Manufacturing Prod y/y | 0.2 | -- | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 0715/0915 | ** | Sep | | ES | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0745/0945 | ** | Sep | | IT | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0750/0950 | ** | Sep | | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0755/0955 | ** | Sep | | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** | Sep | | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | Sep | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Final) | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | 07-Oct | | UK | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 05/10/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** | 30-Sep | | US | MBA Mortgage Applications w/w | -3.7 | -- | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 1215/0815 | *** | Sep | | US | ADP Private Payrolls | 132 | -- | (k) |
| 05/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | * | Aug |  | CA | Building Permits | -- | -- | % |
| 05/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | Aug | | US | Previous Trade Deficit Revised | -80.9 | -- | USD (b) |
| 05/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | Aug | | US | Trade Balance | -70.7 | 68.1 | USD (b) |
| 05/10/2022 | 1345/0945 | *** | Sep | | US | IHS Markit Services Index (final) | 49.2 | 49.3 | |
| 05/10/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | Sep | | US | ISM Non-manufacturing Index | 56.9 | 56.0 | |
| 05/10/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | 30-Sep | | US | Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w | -0.215 | -- | bbl (m) |
| 05/10/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | 30-Sep | | US | Distillate Stocks w/w change | -2.891 | -- | bbl (m) |
| 05/10/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | 30-Sep | | US | Gasoline Stocks w/w change | -2.422 | -- | bbl (m) |
| 06/10/2022 | 0130/1230 | ** | Oct | | AU | Trade Balance | 8733.0 | 10000 | AUD (m) |
| 06/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Aug | | DE | manufacturing orders m/m | -1.1 | -0.7 | % |
| 06/10/2022 | 0700/0900 | ** | Aug | | ES | Industrial Production y/y | 5.3 | 4.1 | % |
| 06/10/2022 | 0730/0930 | ** | Sep | | EU | IHS Markit Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
| 06/10/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | Sep | | UK | IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
| 06/10/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | Aug | | EU | Retail Sales m/m | 0.3 | -0.5 | % |
| 06/10/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | Aug | | EU | Retail Sales y/y wda | -0.9 | -1.7 | % |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | * | Sep | | CA | Ivey PMI (SA) | 60.9 | -- | |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 01-Oct | | US | Continuing Claims | 1347.0 | -- | (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 01-Oct | | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 193.0 | -- | (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 01-Oct | | US | Prev Continuing Claims, Rev | 1376.0 | -- | (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 01-Oct | | US | Prev Initial Jobless Claims, Rev | 209.0 | -- | (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 29-Sep | | US | Corn Net Sales | 512.0 | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 29-Sep | | US | Corn Weekly Exports | 574.7 | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 29-Sep | | US | Soy Net Sales | 1003.0 | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 29-Sep | | US | Soy Weekly Exports | 269.2 | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 29-Sep | | US | Wheat Net Sales | 279.8 | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | 29-Sep | | US | Wheat Weekly Exports | 620.7 | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/10/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | 30-Sep | | US | Natural Gas Stocks w/w | 103.0 | -- | Bcf |
| 07/10/2022 | 0545/0745 | ** | Sep | | CH | Unemployment Rate | 2.1 | 2.1 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0545/0745 | ** | Sep | | CH | Unemployment m/m | -0.1 | -- | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0545/0745 | ** | Sep | | CH | Unemployment y/y | -27.7 | -- | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Aug | | DE | Industrial Production m/m | -0.3 | -0.5 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Aug | | DE | Retail Sales m/m | 1.9 | -1.0 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Aug | | DE | Retail Sales y/y | -5.5 | -4.1 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Sep | | DE | Export Price Index m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Sep | | DE | Export Price Index y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Sep | | DE | Import Price Index m/m | 1.4 | 2.2 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | Sep | | DE | Import Price Index y/y | 28.9 | 30.0 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Aug | | FR | Current Account | -5.3 | -- | E (b) |
| 07/10/2022 | 0645/0845 | * | Aug | | FR | Foreign Trade | -14.538 | -- | E (b) |
| 07/10/2022 | 0800/1000 | * | Aug | | IT | Retail Sales m/m | 1.3 | -- | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 0800/1000 | * | Aug | | IT | Retail Sales y/y nsa | 4.2 | -- | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | CA | Employment | -39.7 | -- | (k) |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | CA | Unemployment rate | 5.4 | -- | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | US | Average Hourly Earnings, m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | US | Average Workweek, All Workers | 34.5 | 34.5 | hrs |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | US | Nonfarm Payrolls | 315.0 | 250 | (k) |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | US | Prev Nonfarm Payrolls, Rev | 526.0 | -- | (k) |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | US | Private Payrolls | 308.0 | 263 | (k) |
| 07/10/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | Sep | | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.7 | % |
| 07/10/2022 | 1900/1500 | * | Aug | | US | consumer credit | 23.8 | 25.0 | USD (b) |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.