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GoC Inversion Builds With Risk-Off

CANADA
  • GoCs opened sharply higher and despite a small pull back, still see front-end yields down 5bps to reverse Friday’s move after the US and Canadian employment reports and longer end yields moving further below with 5Y and 10Y -6.5bps.
  • The net result has been both 2s5s and 2s10s falling further into inversion at -10bps and -3bps respectively, with 2s5s in particular nearing lows from 2019 when looking through Mar’20 volatility.
  • Broadly similar story in early trading for BAX futures coming ahead of tomorrow’s BoC decision, with the curve still extremely steep through 2022 before solid inversion thereafter and implied rates for late 2023/early 2024 back close to where they were after the Jun 1 BoC.

Source: Bloomberg

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