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GoCs Holding Sizeable Rally Post-US CPI Ahead of BOC

CANADA
  • GoCs have seen a like-for-like rally since US CPI and its softer details, with the 2Y yield dropping 8bps for 11.5bps on the day.
  • Ahead of the imminent BoC decision at 1000ET, it’s the opposite the softer CPI print is the opposite to ahead of the June BOC decision, when it surprised a majority of analysts by hiking, having earlier followed weak labor productivity data.
  • We’ll see shortly whether the BoC follows through with the hike that most analysts expect and with ~19bps priced, or whether it surprises again.
  • That ~19bps is little changed post-CPI although the cumulative 40+bp of hikes to year-end is currently seen at 35bps.
  • Reminder of the preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/54549/BOCPreviewJul2023.pdf
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