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GoCs Underperform Despite Solid Moderation In 3-Month Core Rate

CANADA
  • GoC yields extended their post-CPI rise and outstripped the sell-off seen in Treasuries over the same period, with 2Y GoCs +3.8bp vs Tsys +3bp and 5Y GoCs +5.5bp and +3.0bp post-data.
  • There's no change in hike expectations but cut pricing is trimmed. 3M CORRA futures are unchanged for the Z3 but have seen implied yields lift up to 4.5bps for 2H24 contracts, with BAZ3/Z4 tightening from -89bps to -85bps.
  • It’s a surprising reaction considering the decline in core trend rates: the same M/M rates in November would see the three-month rate slow further from 3.0% to 2.0% annualized (as a particularly strong 0.4% M/M from August drops out).

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