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GoCs Underperform Treasuries With Latter’s QT Plan Focus

CANADA
  • GoCs hold earlier underperformance to Tsys, trading 3-4bps richer vs 4-6bp for Tsys, with the largest difference in 5-10Y tenors amidst continued focus on potential QT taper timing.
  • The 1.5-2bp narrowing in negative Can-US yield differential helps unwind Friday’s post-jobs reports move, with the 5Y of -63bps nudging to its highest since Dec 27 although the 10Y at -78bps is still more recently rangebound.
  • Nearer-term, the first cut is seen almost fully priced for the April BoC. Further out, 3mth CORRA futures trade up to 4bp richer for Dec’24 and Mar’25 contracts, leaving CORH4/Z4 of -102bps at the higher end of the range since Dec 19 but not at extremes.
  • Tomorrow sees international trade and building permits headline the local docket.

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