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E-MINI S&P (U2): Approaching Its Bear Trigger


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  • Gold's whipsaw session saw prices spiral lower in early Asia-Pac trade, falling sharply to touch fresh multi-month lows. While the European morning and bulk of the US session saw decent interest in buying on dips, prices remained deep in negative territory, worsening the outlook for the yellow metal. Market speculation of forced liquidation, position unwinds and margin calls inevitably spread, with the price action likely exacerbated by market closures across Asia and typically light summer volumes.
  • The pull lower found some support at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 range, but the recovery off the low will have emboldened bulls. To reinforce any upside argument, bulls need to regain $1834.1, Jul 15 high, ahead of $1853.3, a Fibonacci retracement. Front-end implied vols for Gold understandably lurched higher, with the 1m contract adding almost 2.5 points across the trading day.
  • Oil benchmarks also traded lower, with both WTI and Brent showing through last week's lows. WTI printed a fresh low of $65.15/bbl, with scope of a further decline toward the mid-July low of $65.01/bbl.

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