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Gold Rallies As Fed Rate Cut Hopes Grow, Oil Trading Higher

COMMODITIES
  • Spot gold has risen by 1.8% to $2,415/oz today, taking it to its highest level since May 22.
  • The yellow metal rallied following today’s soft US June CPI data, which showed back-to-back declines for "supercore" prices, increasing prospects for an earlier Fed rate cut.
  • Today’s gains reinforce short-term bullish conditions, resulting in a breach of $2,387.8, the Jun 7 high. This has opened key resistance at $2,450.1, the May 20 high.
  • In contrast, copper has fallen by 2.1% to $451/lb, bringing the red metal to its lowest since July 03.
  • Prices declined as inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose to a fresh two-year high.
  • Analysts at Macquarie said that a broad rise in stockpiles suggests that surpluses are emerging across the industrial metals markets, at a time when demand is typically strongest.
  • Meanwhile, crude is set to close higher after struggling for clear direction during the day. Yesterday’s EIA stock draw has been supportive, while a gradual reopening of operation on the USGC will assuage concerns for longer-term disruption.
  • WTI Aug 24 is up 0.6% at $82.6/bbl.
  • WTI futures have recovered from yesterday’s low and the recent bear leg appears to have been a correction.
  • Sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.91, the 50-day EMA.
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