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Natixis View on Fed's Dot Plot: Hawkish


Range Base Holds Firm

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  • The market's initial response to the Fed rate decision was hawkish, with traders eyeing the statement's acknowledgement that the economy is making progress toward policy goals. This boosted the greenback, placing precious metals and gold in particular under pressure.
  • Sentiment soon reversed, however, as the Fed chair struck a dovish tone in the subsequent press conference, reinforcing the message that communication will change and markets will receive advance notice ahead of any taper.
  • This prompted a near $15 turnaround in gold, which rose back toward the overnight highs ahead of the Wednesday close.
  • Oil benchmarks saw similar price action, with WTI and Brent crude both closing in positive territory. Oil received further support from the weekly DoE inventories report, with the headline crude stockpile seeing a draw of 4mln barrels over the week, close to double market expectations.