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Goldman Focusing On BoC's Labor Discussion

CANADA
  • Goldman Sachs expect the BoC to follow through with its guidance and remain on hold on Wednesday, along with no change in forward guidance and other changes to be relatively limited and to mostly reflect language from recent BoC communication.
  • In the statement and press conference, they will look for any comments on the labor market, since employment growth remains very strong but labor supply is improving and sequential wage growth is moderating.
  • They maintain their forecast that moderating inflation and improving labor market balance will keep the BoC on hold past March.
  • While there continues to be meaningful risk that the BoC will resume hikes later this year if growth materially picks up or inflation surprises to the upside, Goldman see limited risk of a hike at the next meeting in April given that there is only one more inflation print before then.
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