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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUROZONE
Coming into 2023, consensus looks for a recession in the eurozone, with varying degrees of recovery thereafter - the BBG median forecast for Q/Q GDP is
-0.4% in each of Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, before picking up slightly in the following quarters.
- Goldman Sachs is one of the first to buck the trend, upgrading their growth forecast for Q1 2023 to +0.1% from -0.4% (their tracking estimate for Q4 2022 is -0.2%). Additionally they now see growth in Q2 (+0.1% vs -0.1% prior) and Q3 (+0.1% vs flat prior), for a +0.6% growth forecast for all of 2023. In other words, they've rescinded their call for a technical recession.
- In line with what MNI has pointed out in terms of the eurozone economy potentially bottoming out in Q4 2022(Eurozone economic readings are currently surprising to the upside to the greatest degree since summer 2021), Goldman cites the notable improvement in the activity outlook in recent weeks, including survey and industrial production data, as well as falling gas prices and China re-opening.
- Goldman's GDP forecasts still imply stagnant growth and they still see a 40% probability of technical recession in the next year.
- But MNI expects other sell-side upgrades to follow, following a long-standing stabilisation in expectations: the 2023 eurozone BBG real GDP forecast has remained at -0.1% since late October, having plummeted from +2.5% at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Source: BBG Survey, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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