Goldman Lower Recession Probability

Goldman Sachs note that “the continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our estimated 12-month U.S. recession probability further to 15%, down 5pp from our prior estimate and equal to the unconditional average recession probability of 15% calculated from the fact that a recession has occurred roughly once every seven years since World War 2.”

• “Our estimate is far below the Bloomberg consensus, which remains stuck at 60%.”
• “We are also substantially more optimistic than most other forecasters in terms of our baseline GDP growth forecast, which averages 2% through the end of 2024.”