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Goldman expects the FOMC to acknowledge the recent increase in the pace of economic recovery at the April meeting, "but it is too early for any hints at tapering".
- Though Powell has recently begun using the term "inflection point" to describe the economy, Goldman does not think he means this as a policy signal.
- Statement: Likely to include a more upbeat description of recent activity, might acknowledge progress on vaccination.
- Future action: First tapering hints to come in 2H 2021, and actual taper to begin in early 2022 – though risks that "blowout" jobs reports could bring forward to Q4 2021. Taper pace of $15bn/meeting. Rate liftoff mid-2023.