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Goldman Preview: Too Soon For Taper Talk

FED

Goldman expects the FOMC to acknowledge the recent increase in the pace of economic recovery at the April meeting, "but it is too early for any hints at tapering".

  • Though Powell has recently begun using the term "inflection point" to describe the economy, Goldman does not think he means this as a policy signal.
  • Statement: Likely to include a more upbeat description of recent activity, might acknowledge progress on vaccination.
  • Future action: First tapering hints to come in 2H 2021, and actual taper to begin in early 2022 – though risks that "blowout" jobs reports could bring forward to Q4 2021. Taper pace of $15bn/meeting. Rate liftoff mid-2023.
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