Goldman`s FOMC preview out last night has.......>

FED: Goldman`s FOMC preview out last night has 25bps cut next week as base case,

but `we cannot entirely rule out` a 50bps move if poor data/bad trade news prior

to the meeting means the Fed is `unwilling to deliver a large hawkish shock`.

- To be accompanied by a `relatively upbeat statement and press conference,

indicating only small chance of further cuts at subsequent meetings`.

- End of balance sheet reduction in July will also to be announced.

- KC Fed's George to dissent in favour of a hold.

- 'Act as appropriate' to remain in July statement 'as an indication that the

committee's baseline is a second cut in September'. But September cut not a done

deal: 55% chance (40% no change, 5% 50bps).

- And Goldman expects September to mark the end of easing.

- MNI`s full Fed preview - including this and 20+ other sell-side previews -

will be published by end-of-play NYC time on Monday Jul 29.