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Goldman Sachs Continue to Forecast Mid-Year Rate Hike

RUSSIA
  • Goldman Sachs forecast headline inflation to trough near +2.5% y/y in April and climb towards above-target levels by mid-year driven both by less supportive base effects and rising sequential inflation.
  • Sequential inflation will rise driven by the lagged effects of the continued RUB weakening passing through to non-food goods prices in particular, Goldman Sachs say.
  • With growth surprising on the upside, mostly because fiscal spending is running well ahead of the path suggested by the budget, the labour market is likely to get even tighter and put additional pressure on wages and prices.
  • Goldman Sachs continue to forecast that the CBR will start raising rates from mid-year to limit the overshoot of inflation.
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