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Goldman Sachs Estimate +5.3% Y/Y Inflation Print in November

SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa CPI data is on the docket tomorrow morning (0800GMT). As per the median of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, the headline figure likely fell from +5.9% y/y in October to +5.4% in November. Month-on-month, prices are expected to decline by 0.2% (Prior: +0.9%).
  • Goldman Sachs estimate that headline inflation likely fell back to +5.3% y/y in November, reversing the sharp increase to +5.9% y/y recorded in October. They forecast that core inflation continued to edge lower from +4.4% y/y in October to +4.3% y/y in November.
  • Among non-core factors, they estimate that fuel inflation fell from +11.2% y/y to +1.5% y/y (back to where it was in September, and the main driver of the decline in headline) and that food inflation fell slightly from +8.7% y/y to +8.4% y/y on base effects.
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