Free Trial

Goldman Sachs Expect Close Call Between +25BP and Unchanged

PERU
  • Goldman Sachs expect the BCRP decision to be a close call between a 25bp hike driving the policy rate to 7.25% (their modal call) and a hold-and-monitor decision coupled with hawkish signals that the MPC is open to resuming tightening if necessary.
  • In their assessment, a follow-up 25bp hike is warranted given a backdrop where (1) inflation is still tracking considerably above the demanding 1.0%-3.0% central bank’s target band; (2) core ex-food & energy and services inflation gained renewed momentum since August; (3) inflation expectations for end-2022 and end-2023 drifted further above target; (4) the FOMC signalled a longer cycle with a higher terminal rate; (5) unsettled domestic political and policy environment.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.