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Goldman Sachs Expect Close Call Between +25BP and Unchanged

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  • Goldman Sachs expect the BCRP decision to be a close call between a 25bp hike driving the policy rate to 7.25% (their modal call) and a hold-and-monitor decision coupled with hawkish signals that the MPC is open to resuming tightening if necessary.
  • In their assessment, a follow-up 25bp hike is warranted given a backdrop where (1) inflation is still tracking considerably above the demanding 1.0%-3.0% central bank’s target band; (2) core ex-food & energy and services inflation gained renewed momentum since August; (3) inflation expectations for end-2022 and end-2023 drifted further above target; (4) the FOMC signalled a longer cycle with a higher terminal rate; (5) unsettled domestic political and policy environment.

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  • Goldman Sachs expect the BCRP decision to be a close call between a 25bp hike driving the policy rate to 7.25% (their modal call) and a hold-and-monitor decision coupled with hawkish signals that the MPC is open to resuming tightening if necessary.
  • In their assessment, a follow-up 25bp hike is warranted given a backdrop where (1) inflation is still tracking considerably above the demanding 1.0%-3.0% central bank’s target band; (2) core ex-food & energy and services inflation gained renewed momentum since August; (3) inflation expectations for end-2022 and end-2023 drifted further above target; (4) the FOMC signalled a longer cycle with a higher terminal rate; (5) unsettled domestic political and policy environment.