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Goldman Sachs Expecting A Potential Split Decision Hold

COLOMBIA
  • Goldman Sachs expect the MPC to keep the policy rate unchanged at 13.25% (in a potential split decision). They assess that the slow but steady rebalancing across a broad vector of macroeconomic variables will set the stage for the MPC to end a long tightening cycle that started in Oct-2021.
  • First, headline inflation peaked in March and has surprised to the downside since then, while core and services inflation are stabilizing. Second, medium-term inflation expectations continue to trend downwards. Third, domestic demand is showing consistent signs of moderation. Fourth, real annual bank credit growth is now tracking in negative territory. Fifth, the current account deficit narrowed by more than expected and reached its lowest level in two years. Sixth, the FX backdrop has turned considerably more benign as the COP strengthened by 14% against the USD since the last meeting. Lastly, end-2023 headline inflation expectations posted consecutive declines, which may comfort some hawkish directors who were concerned about their previous upward trend given their role as a nominal benchmark for 2024.
  • GS highlight that the monetary policy stance is already tracking at historically-restrictive levels on an ex-ante real basis.
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