Free Trial

Goldman Sachs: Expects Rates to Rise to 8.50% by Year-End

BANXICO
  • The decision was in line with GS’s call and the broad market consensus, and in our assessment, the post-meeting policy statement is hawkish. Not only was there a dissenting vote for a bolder 75bp but the MPC stated that at the next meeting it will evaluate adapting more forceful measures to attain its target.
  • For the MPC the top 3 upside risks to inflation are (1) persistence of core inflation “at high levels”; (2) external inflationary pressures driven by the covid pandemic; and (3) higher agricultural & energy price pressures due to the recent geopolitical conflict.
  • We expect the MPC to hike another 50bp at the June 23 meeting, to 7.50% and to drive the policy rate to 8.50% by end-2022, given the recent high headline and core inflation prints, highly disseminated upward price pressures, and deteriorating inflation expectations. In our assessment, there is a growing risk of bolder 75bp rate hike in June and overall a deeper hiking cycle in 2022.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.