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Goldman Sachs: Faster Taper Pace And Early Liftoff

FED

Goldman expects that “new information about both inflation and the labor market” since the November meeting “supports a faster taper pace [2x, ending in March] and an early liftoff”. For the Dec FOMC:

  • Statement: “Transitory” likely retired, instead explaining that the current period of elevated inflation unlikely “to leave a permanent mark” by raising long-term inflation expectations. Potentially other meaningful changes including on language about inflation having run persistently below the long-run goal.
  • SEP/Dot Plot: Dots to show 2 hikes in 2022, 3 in 2023, 4 in 2024. But if Powell is comfortable showing 3 hikes in 2022, “then we would expect others to join him in a decisive shift in the dots in that direction.”
  • The 3 2023 hikes include 7 (incl Powell and Brainard) eyeing 2, with six seeing 3 and five seeing 4. Re 4 hike dot in 2024, “more participants to show 4 hikes in 2023 than in 2024, and fewer showing 4 hikes in 2024 next week than did in September” assuming one/two will project a 2024 rate above their neutral rate estimate.
  • Future action: Hikes in May, Jul, Nov 2022 (forward from Jun, Sep, Dec previously). 2 hikes per year starting in 2023 with inflation moderately above 2%.
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