Free Trial

Goldman Sachs: First Mover Advantage

GBP

Goldman Sachs note that "sterling has been outperforming of late, and while vaccinations are probably helping boost the optimistic narrative - about 25% of the population has received at least the first dose - we are doubtful this is the only driver. Indeed, FX markets are forward-looking, so reaching herd immunity a few months earlier than its peers should have a relatively modest impact on the currency. Moreover, there are other factors underpinning recent GBP appreciation. First, we are likely observing some lagged follow through from the clearing of Brexit uncertainty, since the trade agreement coincided with concerns over the new Covid variant and renewed lockdowns. Second, the UK economy is particularly exposed to the high-contact service sectors that have been negatively affected by activity restrictions, and should bounce back strongly in coming quarters when excess savings are unleashed. Finally, the BoE's finding that negative rates are not feasible at the moment has helped clear some of the policy headwinds. Taking these factors together, we maintain our recommendation to go long GBP/CHF with a target of CHF1.30, as we see room for CHF to depreciate more than other reserve currencies as European tail risks recede."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.