Goldman Sachs: ‘Headroom’ Discussion Points To Steeper UK Curve

Goldman Sachs note that "Governor Bailey revived discussion of the BoE's QE exit principles in his Jackson Hole speech. The speech emphasized the countercyclical role of QE and the need for central banks to ensure they have sufficient 'headroom' to exercise purchases. This echoes his previous comments that the BoE may review its current sequencing for QE exit, which currently would wait for normalization of Bank Rate to around 1.5% before initiating balance sheet runoff. As we have argued, should this sequencing change, the cyclical leadership of the UK curve is likely to come from the long-end, particularly given the long maturity of UK debt implies the need for relatively earlier BoE runoff for any given quantum of 'headroom' vs other major central banks. With negative rates clearly in the toolbox - a point underscored again by Bailey - we continue to recommend 2s30s gilt steepeners."