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Goldman Sachs note that "although we....>

DOLLAR-ASIA
DOLLAR-ASIA: Goldman Sachs note that "although we anticipate USD weakness vs.
some crosses, we exp. USD/NJA FX to follow USD/CNY higher short term. We expect
KRW, TWD & MYR to underperform NJA FX as our previous analysis has shown that
these currencies have the highest beta CNY. We now forecast USD/KRW at 1280,
1250 & 1200 and forecast USD/TWD at 30.9, 30.50 & 30.20 on a 3m, 6m & 12m view.
We also exp. THB to underperform NJA because international tourism (12% of
Thailand's GDP) should remain subdued while other sectors such as m'fing
rebounds first. Thus, THB should remain a laggard within NJA over the next 12m;
we forecast USD/THB as 32.80, 32.50 & 32.0. Amongst the low-yield NJA FX, we
exp. SGD to outperform peers. The MAS has already delivered double easing, & the
gov't has just announced another large fiscal package, where financing could
potentially come from overseas asset sales. We exp. high-yield NJA FX to
relatively outperform low-yield NJA FX, as they are less linked to China & more
sensitive to the broad USD. We now forecast USD/INR at 77, 76, & 75 on 3m, 6m &
12m view. Meanwhile, we exp. PHP & IDR to outperform NJA, forecasting 50.9, 50.6
& 49.5 for USD/PHP and 14800, 14600 & 14200 for USD/IDR."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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