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Goldman Sachs on BCRP: Statement Still Leans Relatively Dovish

PERU
  • Goldman Sachs: As with the previous meeting’s release, GS read the statements as hinting that the MPC does not see a compelling case to reach neutrality anytime soon and is still inclined to keep the policy stance stimulative (below neutral) for a prolonged period of time, reducing the level of monetary accommodation in coming meetings but not necessarily at the 50bp pace of the last four meetings.
  • In their assessment, despite the data-dependent and somewhat dovish forward guidance, additional near-term rate hikes are likely given the current inflation dynamics and unstable exchange rate outlook. The very low ex-ante real policy rate level (still negative), the recurrent inflation surprises, deteriorating short- and medium-term inflation and PEN expectations, heightened political and policy uncertainty, and broad risk management considerations justify a frontloaded monetary policy normalization path to at least a neutral policy stance.
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